Volume 2 Number 1 2024
Strengthening National Economic Security Through Predictive Financial Risk Analytics
Mitu Akter1*, Md Iqbal Hossain2, Md. Rezaul Haque3
Business and Social Sciences 2 (1) 1-7 https://doi.org/10.25163/business.2110429
Submitted: 31 March 2024 Revised: 17 June 2024 Accepted: 23 June 2024 Published: 25 June 2024
Abstract
Background: National economic security has emerged as a core priority in the global financial system due to increasing exposure to market volatility, geopolitical instability, and technological disruptions. Traditional risk management systems which operate retrospectively do not detect connected risks in advance. The system generates weaknesses which damage economic stability during extended periods. Predictive financial risk analytics which use data-driven models enable national economic security to improve through early warning systems and preemptive risk management approaches.
Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 315 respondents drawn from banks, investment firms, and regulatory agencies. The research team obtained data through structured questionnaires which they verified by examining financial reports that spanned from 2018 to 2023.A study approach which combines descriptive statistics with chi-square association tests and regression modeling was used to study predictive analytics adoption and its effects on resilience and policy preparedness.
Results: The results showed that 72% of institutions used predictive analytics which enhanced their forecasting accuracy by 28% and decreased portfolio volatility by 32% compared to standard models. The combination of data-sharing and strong regulatory preparedness systems led to a 22% increase in resilience scores and a 27% decrease in default risks and enhanced systemic stability.
Conclusion: Predictive financial risk analytics functions as a vital instrument which allows nations to develop economic systems that can quickly adapt to risks and obstacles. The system achieves superior financial stability through its work to enhance warning systems and its efforts to decrease institutional risks and improve agency cooperation.
Keywords: Predictive analytics, financial risk, Economic security, Capital markets, Systemic resilience
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